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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.25, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "GBPCAD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "NZDJPY": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "CHFJPY": { "base": "CHF", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "JPY", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "direction": -1, "tone": "negative", "signedDirection": "Towards JPY", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "EURGBP": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "GBP", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "EURJPY": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "CADJPY": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.706633+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.009179+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.910509+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.338163+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.706633+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.009179+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.910509+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.338163+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.96786 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.9613 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.135811+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.53119 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.47074 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.602097+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.925678+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.022063+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.135811+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.602097+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.925678+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.022063+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:32.907400+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:29.898475+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:32.589887+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.224509+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:32.907400+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:29.898475+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:32.589887+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.224509+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.03398 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.22581 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.712384+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.89563 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.38398 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.011267+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.981507+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.779762+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.712384+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.011267+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.981507+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.779762+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.9 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.718108+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.7 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.010281+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.411769+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:36.094819+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.718108+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.010281+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.411769+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:36.094819+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.3 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.715433+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.9 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.603035+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.686234+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.254381+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.715433+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.603035+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.686234+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.254381+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "score": 3, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:29:46.011Z" }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 4.05819 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 3.108 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.720678+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; falling", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.78191 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 2.19093 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:26:21.603627+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.728344+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.760823+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "USDCAD": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "GBPCAD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "NZDJPY": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "CHFJPY": { "base": "CHF", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "JPY", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "direction": -1, "tone": "negative", "signedDirection": "Towards JPY", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "EURGBP": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "GBP", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "EURJPY": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "CADJPY": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.968706+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.426930+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:41.881838+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.247012+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.968706+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.426930+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:41.881838+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.247012+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.96786 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.9613 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.271685+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.53119 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.47074 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.996470+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:41.897291+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.044875+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.271685+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.996470+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:41.897291+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.044875+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:40.441713+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.771230+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:39.919469+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:41.656275+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:40.441713+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.771230+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:39.919469+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:41.656275+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.03398 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.22581 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.971758+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.89563 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.38398 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.431038+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.134475+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.282952+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.971758+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.431038+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.134475+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.282952+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.9 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.977566+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.7 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.428453+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.505920+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.596277+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.977566+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.428453+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.505920+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.596277+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.3 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.974769+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.9 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.997577+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.407920+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.669136+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.974769+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.997577+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.407920+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.669136+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "score": 3, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 4.05819 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 3.108 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.980137+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; falling", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.78191 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 2.19093 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.998440+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.737777+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.816243+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.", "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The published conditional policy projection allows further tightening.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "1–3% medium-term range, focused on 2%", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:37.980137+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.998440+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.737777+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:42.816243+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S" } ], "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "score": 0, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-22T09:34:44.907Z" }, "USD": { "currency": "USD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline PCE", "text": "Above the model reference zone; falling", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.41903 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.82333 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.205511+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.0076 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.16171 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:44.402760+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "title": "Unemployment Rate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.106036+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.55049 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.61721 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T09:34:43.041387+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "USD", "bank": "Federal Reserve", "short": "Fed", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path", "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase", "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:23.691472+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:30.340700+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.643794+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.991716+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:23.691472+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:30.340700+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.643794+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.991716+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.96786 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.9613 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:29.882851+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.53119 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.47074 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:29.845402+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.657050+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.986890+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:29.882851+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:29.845402+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.657050+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.986890+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:26.811953+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:30.353499+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:26.338360+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.291946+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:26.811953+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:30.353499+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:26.338360+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.291946+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:23.693701+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:30.343314+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.973446+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:28.274028+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:23.693701+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:30.343314+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:27.973446+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:28.274028+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-23T10:34:30.640Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.9 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:23.697986+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.7 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:30.341967+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:28.531667+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T10:34:28.617530+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-24T10:37:35.542Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.504329+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.676651+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.878193+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.631624+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. 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This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.504329+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.676651+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.878193+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.631624+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-24T10:37:35.542Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.96786 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.9613 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.725942+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.53119 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.47074 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.952869+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.183610+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.006064+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.725942+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.952869+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.183610+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.006064+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-24T10:37:35.542Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.067674+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:35.116167+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:30.667360+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.446603+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.067674+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:35.116167+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:30.667360+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.446603+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-24T10:37:35.542Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.506948+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.679472+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.372566+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.633069+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.506948+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.679472+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.372566+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.633069+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-24T10:37:35.542Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.9 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.511907+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.7 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.677997+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.167059+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.097611+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.511907+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.677997+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.167059+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.097611+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-24T10:37:35.542Z" }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.509545+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.953720+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.726542+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.047887+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. 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Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "direction": 1, "tone": "positive", "signedDirection": "Towards AUD", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "USDCHF": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.875, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "GBPCHF": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.75, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "GBP currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "direction": 1, "tone": "positive", "signedDirection": "Towards GBP", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "AUDJPY": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 3.35, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "NZDCHF": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.75, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "NZD currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "direction": 1, "tone": "positive", "signedDirection": "Towards NZD", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "USDJPY": { "base": "USD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EURCHF": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "GBPJPY": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "AUDCAD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 2.35, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.25, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "USDCAD": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "GBPCAD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "NZDJPY": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "CHFJPY": { "base": "CHF", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "JPY", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "direction": -1, "tone": "negative", "signedDirection": "Towards JPY", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EURGBP": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "GBP", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EURJPY": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "CADJPY": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.504329+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.676651+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.878193+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.631624+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.504329+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.676651+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.878193+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.631624+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.96786 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.9613 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.725942+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.53119 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.47074 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.952869+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.183610+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.006064+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.725942+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.952869+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.183610+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.006064+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.067674+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:35.116167+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:30.667360+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.446603+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.067674+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:35.116167+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:30.667360+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:31.446603+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.506948+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.679472+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.372566+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.633069+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.506948+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.679472+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.372566+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.633069+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.9 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.511907+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.7 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.677997+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.167059+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.097611+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.511907+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.677997+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.167059+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.097611+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-25T07:39:12.564Z" }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:29.509545+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:34.953720+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:32.726542+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-22T10:37:33.047887+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-29T10:57:28.146Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:22.194386+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.234175+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.540455+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:25.028537+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:22.194386+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.234175+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.540455+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:25.028537+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-29T10:57:28.146Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.96786 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.9613 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.196705+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 3.53119 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 3.47074 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.434684+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.553552+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.702783+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.196705+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.434684+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.553552+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.702783+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-29T10:57:28.146Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:23.732178+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.542387+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:23.429000+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.061811+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:23.732178+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.542387+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:23.429000+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.061811+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-29T10:57:28.146Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:22.200462+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.237318+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.949171+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.981227+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:22.200462+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.237318+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.949171+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:24.981227+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-29T10:57:28.146Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:22.206403+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:27.235705+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:25.562937+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-27T10:57:25.710192+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:13.508719+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.440818+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.407652+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.701639+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:13.508719+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.440818+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.407652+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.701639+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-31T11:44:19.100Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.289569+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.417822+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.460064+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.388570+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.289569+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.417822+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.460064+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.388570+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-31T11:44:19.100Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:15.335108+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.879159+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:14.852382+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:15.815113+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:15.335108+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.879159+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:14.852382+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:15.815113+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:13.511611+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.443610+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.654153+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.691349+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:13.511611+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.443610+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.654153+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:16.691349+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:13.516834+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:18.442223+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:17.046042+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T11:44:17.112599+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:11.589624+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.040956+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.169688+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.329706+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:11.589624+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.040956+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.169688+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.329706+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-31T12:45:16.371Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:15.573169+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.082980+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.172032+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.168515+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:15.573169+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.082980+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.172032+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.168515+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-31T12:45:16.371Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:13.501896+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.288203+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:13.139124+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:13.897190+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:13.501896+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.288203+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:13.139124+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:13.897190+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:11.591271+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.042601+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.341708+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.360444+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:11.591271+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.042601+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.341708+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.360444+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:11.594368+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:16.041793+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.525300+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:45:14.709047+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. 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Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unavailable", "label": "Insufficient current evidence", "reason": "Both currencies require current macro inputs, reviewed policy guidance and a recent policy-rate snapshot.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "At least one bank’s policy direction remains uncertain. Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unavailable", "label": "Insufficient current evidence", "reason": "Both currencies require current macro inputs, reviewed policy guidance and a recent policy-rate snapshot.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unavailable", "label": "Insufficient current evidence", "reason": "Both currencies require current macro inputs, reviewed policy guidance and a recent policy-rate snapshot.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unavailable", "label": "Insufficient current evidence", "reason": "Both currencies require current macro inputs, reviewed policy guidance and a recent policy-rate snapshot.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:08.077419+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.529877+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.043635+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.390948+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:08.077419+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.529877+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.043635+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.390948+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-10-31T12:48:18.496Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.050917+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.155981+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.134255+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.159363+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.050917+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.155981+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.134255+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.159363+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-10-31T12:48:18.496Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:09.190053+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.513584+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:08.808840+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:09.610522+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "The evidence does not establish a sufficiently supported hike, cut or hold bias" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:09.190053+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.513584+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:08.808840+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:09.610522+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 2, "guidanceDirection": "neutral", "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "unavailable", "label": "Policy outlook unavailable", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:08.080449+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.532809+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.443829+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.532910+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official guidance is unreviewed, expired or superseded by a newer decision" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:08.080449+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.532809+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.443829+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.532910+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "expiresAt": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:08.086046+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:12.531357+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.784366+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T12:48:10.942332+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. 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"previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.346926+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. 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This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:47.789782+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:54.474237+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:50.959235+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.346926+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-11-01T05:57:31.298Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:53.935623+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:54.238026+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.042040+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.079817+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:53.935623+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:54.238026+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.042040+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.079817+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-01T05:57:31.298Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "unavailable", "label": "Policy outlook unavailable", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:49.722928+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:54.646550+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:49.338558+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:50.498215+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official guidance is unreviewed, expired or superseded by a newer decision" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; 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broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:47.791408+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:54.475873+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.456149+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-29T22:01:51.568157+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official guidance is unreviewed, expired or superseded by a newer decision" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; 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"previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:17.358838+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. 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This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:13.644432+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:19.226189+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:16.616954+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:17.358838+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-11-01T11:39:25.459Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:18.865417+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:19.230947+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:16.667152+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:16.739103+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:18.865417+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:19.230947+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:16.667152+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:16.739103+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-01T11:39:25.459Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "unavailable", "label": "Policy outlook unavailable", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:15.432235+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:19.599557+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:15.059731+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:16.059193+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official guidance is unreviewed, expired or superseded by a newer decision" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; 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broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:13.647452+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:19.229194+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:16.991706+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-30T11:39:17.010687+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official guidance is unreviewed, expired or superseded by a newer decision" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; 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Read the economic pressure and opposing evidence below.", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T14:45:15.995Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:04.099741+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.034148+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.348491+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.754112+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:04.099741+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.034148+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.348491+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.754112+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "score": 1, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T14:45:15.995Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.031931+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:08.928994+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.648957+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.486845+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.031931+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:08.928994+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.648957+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.486845+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "score": 1, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T14:45:15.995Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:05.663552+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.349674+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:05.316504+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:05.996500+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:05.663552+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.349674+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:05.316504+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:05.996500+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "score": 3, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T14:45:15.995Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:04.103262+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.037216+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.934160+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:07.044743+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:04.103262+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.037216+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:06.934160+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:07.044743+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "score": 1, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T14:45:15.995Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:04.109085+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:09.035715+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:07.424759+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T14:45:07.582661+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "macroComparison": { "baseScore": 3, "quoteScore": 2, "scoreDifference": 1, "forecast": false }, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "macroComparison": { "baseScore": 3, "quoteScore": 1, "scoreDifference": 2, "forecast": false }, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No supported direction", "crossingRisk": false, "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.193634+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.756793+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.446582+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.536290+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.193634+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.756793+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.446582+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.536290+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.237804+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.782839+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.108807+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.227658+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.237804+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.782839+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.108807+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.227658+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:53.384602+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:57.262721+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:52.874004+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:53.869449+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:53.384602+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:57.262721+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:52.874004+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:53.869449+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.195969+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.759083+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.568214+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.807502+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.195969+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.759083+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.568214+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.807502+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.200230+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.757948+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.102554+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.012871+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.200230+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.757948+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.102554+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.012871+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.198228+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.783600+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.781975+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.858000+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.198228+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.783600+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "periodEnd": "2026-07-31", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.781975+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:54.858000+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3.71494 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 3.07929 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.202155+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.4541 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.32815 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.784257+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.212174+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.281864+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.", "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The published conditional policy projection allows further tightening.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "1–3% medium-term range, focused on 2%", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:51.202155+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.784257+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.212174+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:55.281864+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S" } ], "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T15:09:04.062Z" }, "USD": { "currency": "USD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline PCE", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.64887 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.45301 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T15:08:56.527328+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change; 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no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "USD", "bank": "Federal Reserve", "short": "Fed", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path", "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase", "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. 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Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "matching_policy_bias" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "NZDCHF": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.75, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "USDJPY": { "base": "USD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EURCHF": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "GBPJPY": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "AUDCAD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "NZDJPY": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. 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Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "CADJPY": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "CHFJPY": { "base": "CHF", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "JPY", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "reviewed", "base": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "widening", "qualitativeReason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "reviewed", "base": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "widening", "qualitativeReason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "reasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EURGBP": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "GBP", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EURJPY": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "GBPCAD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The verified 3-month market-implied policy-rate path for both currencies is not available. Macro and central-bank evidence remain visible, but the model does not invent a 90-day gap classification.", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "market_implied_path_unavailable" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "No verified market path", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.443769+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.129503+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.381928+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.697131+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.443769+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.129503+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.381928+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.697131+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:59.986068+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.084924+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.417505+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.244608+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:59.986068+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.084924+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.417505+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.244608+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:56.572838+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.395044+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:56.238881+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:56.878423+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:56.572838+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.395044+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:56.238881+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:56.878423+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.446834+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.132627+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.877440+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.918446+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.446834+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.132627+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.877440+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:57.918446+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.452567+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.131073+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.223849+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.395885+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.452567+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.131073+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.223849+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.395885+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.449882+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.086019+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.132946+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.313737+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; 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rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3.71494 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 3.07929 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.455149+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.4541 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.32815 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.087017+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.751374+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.747396+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.", "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The published conditional policy projection allows further tightening.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "1–3% medium-term range, focused on 2%", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:55.455149+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.087017+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.751374+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.747396+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S" } ], "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" }, "USD": { "currency": "USD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline PCE", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.64887 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.45301 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.345533+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.12116 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.04123 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.958143+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "title": "Unemployment Rate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.688407+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.55049 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.61721 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:59.308855+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "USD", "bank": "Federal Reserve", "short": "Fed", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path", "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase", "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.", "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "evidence": "Official FOMC statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The decision leaves future adjustments dependent on incoming information.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline PCE", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% longer-run headline PCE objective", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.345533+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:54:00.958143+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:58.688407+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T16:53:59.308855+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S" } ], "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T16:54:08.355Z" } } }, { "generatedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:10.019Z", "modelVersion": "3.1.0", "inputFingerprint": "96f173d409adc9cdd7031d1201782d4a4d298f65b750ef04a151c877ab0cba99", "states": { "AUDCHF": "widening", "USDCHF": "unclear", "GBPCHF": "widening", "AUDJPY": "unclear", "NZDCHF": "unclear", "USDJPY": "unclear", "CADCHF": "unclear", "EURCHF": "widening", "GBPJPY": "widening", "AUDCAD": "unclear", "EURAUD": "narrowing", "AUDNZD": "unclear", "NZDJPY": "unclear", "EURUSD": "unclear", "USDCAD": "unclear", "CADJPY": "unclear", "CHFJPY": "widening", "EURGBP": "unclear", "EURJPY": "widening", "GBPCAD": "widening", "NZDUSD": "unclear", "GBPNZD": "unclear", "GBPAUD": "narrowing", "AUDUSD": "unclear", "EURNZD": "unclear", "NZDCAD": "unclear", "GBPUSD": "unclear", "EURCAD": "widening" }, "rates": { "AUD": 4.6, "USD": 3.875, "GBP": 3.75, "NZD": 2.75, "EUR": 2.5, "CAD": 2.5, "JPY": 1.25, "CHF": 0 }, "pairs": { "AUDCHF": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 4.6, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Reviewed central-bank policy biases suggest the absolute gap may widen. 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An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "reviewed", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "widening", "qualitativeReason": "AUD currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "AUD currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "reasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards AUD", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "USDCHF": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.875, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. 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Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "AUDJPY": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 3.35, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "reviewed", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "matching_policy_bias" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "reviewed", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "matching_policy_bias" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Both banks have the same directional bias. Without the timing and size of their moves, relative divergence is unresolved.", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "NZDCHF": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.75, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "USDJPY": { "base": "USD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "EURCHF": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (EUR 3, CHF 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "GBPJPY": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (GBP 3, JPY 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "AUDCAD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (EUR 3, AUD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible narrowing of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "NZDJPY": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "USDCAD": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "CADJPY": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "CHFJPY": { "base": "CHF", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "JPY", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Reviewed central-bank policy biases suggest the absolute gap may widen. This is a conditional research scenario; no future policy-rate levels, basis-point changes or probabilities are estimated. Market-implied 3M policy pricing is not connected.", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_scenario", "classificationBasis": "reviewed_policy_scenario", "evidenceTier": "reviewed_qualitative", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "reviewed", "base": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "widening", "qualitativeReason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "reviewed", "base": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "widening", "qualitativeReason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reason": "JPY currently has the higher policy rate. Relative policy biases support widening. An unchanged gap remains possible because either bank may hold.", "reasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": -1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards JPY", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "EURGBP": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "GBP", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (GBP 3, AUD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible narrowing of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (EUR 3, CAD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html" }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.638227+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.779920+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:58.886046+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.404487+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.638227+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.779920+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:58.886046+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.404487+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.699736+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.370274+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:58.943901+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.176327+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.699736+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.370274+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:58.943901+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.176327+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:57.627265+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:02.256397+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:57.137727+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:58.132486+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:57.627265+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:02.256397+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:57.137727+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:58.132486+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.644295+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.783187+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.625598+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.729223+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.644295+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.783187+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.625598+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.729223+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.650236+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.781572+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.062429+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.293946+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.650236+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.781572+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.062429+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.293946+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.647497+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.371342+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.892246+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.039944+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.647497+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.371342+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "periodEnd": "2026-07-31", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:59.892246+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.039944+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3.71494 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 3.07929 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.652767+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.4541 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.32815 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.372281+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.409067+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.406702+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.", "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The published conditional policy projection allows further tightening.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "1–3% medium-term range, focused on 2%", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:09:55.652767+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.372281+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.409067+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.406702+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S" } ], "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:10:10.019Z" }, "USD": { "currency": "USD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline PCE", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.64887 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.45301 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:01.840700+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.12116 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.04123 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:02.211022+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "title": "Unemployment Rate", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.755509+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.55049 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.61721 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:10:00.748840+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "USD", "bank": "Federal Reserve", "short": "Fed", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path", "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase", "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "automated_policy_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "automated_provisional", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards USD", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "GBPCHF": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.75, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Automated assessment of the latest recorded official rate decisions and source-validated economic indicators suggests a conditional widening scenario. This is a machine-generated policy-pressure screen, NOT a human-reviewed interpretation of the new official statement, nor a predicted rate change. GBP: Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase. CHF: Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold.", "reasonCode": "automated_policy_scenario", "classificationBasis": "automated_conditional_policy_pressure", "evidenceTier": "automated_provisional", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "automated_provisional", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "automated_policy_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "automated_provisional", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "AUDJPY": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 3.35, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "The evidence for JPY does not establish a supported future policy direction.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "The evidence for JPY does not establish a supported future policy direction.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The evidence for JPY does not establish a supported future policy direction.", "reasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "NZDCHF": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.75, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Automated assessment of the latest recorded official rate decisions and source-validated economic indicators suggests a conditional widening scenario. This is a machine-generated policy-pressure screen, NOT a human-reviewed interpretation of the new official statement, nor a predicted rate change. NZD: Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase. CHF: Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold.", "reasonCode": "automated_policy_scenario", "classificationBasis": "automated_conditional_policy_pressure", "evidenceTier": "automated_provisional", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "automated_provisional", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "automated_policy_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "automated_provisional", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "widening", "label": "Widening bias", "reasonCode": "reviewed_relative_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards NZD", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "USDJPY": { "base": "USD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. 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Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "CHFJPY": { "base": "CHF", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "JPY", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "The evidence for JPY does not establish a supported future policy direction.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "The evidence for JPY does not establish a supported future policy direction.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "The evidence for JPY does not establish a supported future policy direction.", "reasonCode": "unresolved_policy_direction", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "EURGBP": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "GBP", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "EURJPY": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (EUR 3, JPY 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. 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Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "new_official_decision_unverified" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "GBPCAD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (GBP 3, CAD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (GBP 3, AUD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible narrowing of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "hike_hold", "reviewed": true, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (EUR 3, CAD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "hold", "label": "Conditional hold bias", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:25.466213+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:31.398543+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.677401+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:29.089792+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Hold is a conditional research baseline supported by policy context, not a commitment by the bank." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:25.466213+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:31.398543+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.677401+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:29.089792+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "hold_context", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Hike or hold bias", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:30.909124+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:30.916503+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.740684+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.825181+00:00" } ], "reasons": [], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:30.909124+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:30.916503+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.740684+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.825181+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "reasonCode": "reviewed_policy_bias", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "reviewed_current", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": true, "guidanceDirection": "tightening", "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:27.693510+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:31.384323+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:27.232816+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.140003+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:27.693510+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:31.384323+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:27.232816+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.140003+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:25.470276+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:31.400741+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.992803+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:29.169247+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:25.470276+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:31.400741+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:28.992803+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:29.169247+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-02T17:32:39.191Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:39.191Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:25.476186+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:31.399651+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:29.398153+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-10-31T17:32:29.637255+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "A newer dated official policy decision was found. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "GBPCHF": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.75, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (GBP 3, CHF 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "AUDCAD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (EUR 3, AUD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible narrowing of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (GBP 3, AUD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible narrowing of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "Verified market-implied policy paths are unavailable, and neither reviewed central-bank divergence nor a material relative macro-pressure contrast establishes a directional research scenario.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_market_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Economic-pressure scores differ by 2 model points (EUR 3, CAD 1). Relative macro pressure suggests a possible widening of the absolute policy-rate gap, assuming central banks respond in that direction. This is an exploratory scenario, NOT a verified 90-day policy forecast. Central-bank policy interpretations remain unreviewed or unresolved. Market-implied 3M pricing is unavailable.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "marketVersusPolicy": "not_comparable", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario" } }, "market": { "status": "pending", "horizon": "3M", "horizonRelation": "Three calendar months is a proxy for, not exactly, 90 days", "reason": "Market-implied forward-rate feed not connected", "provider": null, "observedAt": null, "baseExpectedRatePct": null, "quoteExpectedRatePct": null, "expectedSignedGapBp": null, "currentSignedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "marketDirection": null, "crossingRisk": false, "sources": [], "materialityThresholdBp": 5, "confidenceProbability": null }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive independent economic pressure only; no probabilities or expected basis-point moves" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "market_data_unavailable", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": false, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.745109+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.785516+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:23.630443+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.113093+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.745109+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.785516+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:23.630443+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.113093+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.194866+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:26.770289+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:23.581649+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.226212+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.194866+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:26.770289+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:23.581649+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.226212+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:22.530280+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.680052+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:22.030213+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:23.157445+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:22.530280+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.680052+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:22.030213+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:23.157445+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.748195+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.788540+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.004860+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.450469+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.748195+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.788540+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.004860+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.450469+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.753969+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.787021+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.138674+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.543823+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.753969+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.787021+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.138674+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.543823+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.751264+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:26.771364+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.183880+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.870763+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.751264+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:26.771364+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "periodEnd": "2026-07-31", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.183880+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:24.870763+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3.71494 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 3.07929 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.756584+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.4541 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.32815 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:26.772325+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.442366+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.488218+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.", "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The published conditional policy projection allows further tightening.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "1–3% medium-term range, focused on 2%", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:20.756584+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:26.772325+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.442366+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.488218+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S" } ], "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T00:03:53.535Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:53.535Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "USD": { "currency": "USD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline PCE", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.64887 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.45301 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.135087+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.12116 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.04123 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:27.365964+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "title": "Unemployment Rate", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.862607+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.55049 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.61721 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T00:03:25.857598+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "USD", "bank": "Federal Reserve", "short": "Fed", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path", "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase", "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "GBPCHF": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.75, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, CHF 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "AUDJPY": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 3.35, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "NZDCHF": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.75, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "USDJPY": { "base": "USD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "EURCHF": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, CHF 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "GBPJPY": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, JPY 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "AUDCAD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, AUD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could narrow. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "NZDJPY": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.5, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "USDCAD": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "CADJPY": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "CHFJPY": { "base": "CHF", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "JPY", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CHF and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, AUD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could narrow. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, CAD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.835873+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.921072+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:03.823904+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.437328+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.835873+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.921072+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:03.823904+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.437328+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.648562+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.612912+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:03.864251+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.185026+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.648562+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.612912+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:03.864251+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.185026+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.8 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:02.799347+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:07.119175+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:02.315574+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:03.262056+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:02.799347+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:07.119175+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:02.315574+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:03.262056+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.838576+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.923791+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.419417+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.560779+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.838576+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.923791+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.419417+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.560779+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.843655+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.922480+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.976920+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:05.186333+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.843655+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.922480+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.976920+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:05.186333+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.841257+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.613797+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.820115+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.884342+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.841257+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.613797+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "periodEnd": "2026-07-31", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.820115+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:04.884342+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-05T15:47:50.716Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:50.716Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3.71494 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 3.07929 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:00.845936+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.4541 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.32815 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:06.614623+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:05.187513+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-03T15:47:05.303646+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "USDCHF": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.875, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "GBPCHF": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.75, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, CHF 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "AUDJPY": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 3.35, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "NZDCHF": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.75, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "USDJPY": { "base": "USD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "EURCHF": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, CHF 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "GBPJPY": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, JPY 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "AUDCAD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, AUD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could narrow. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "USDCAD": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "CADJPY": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CHF and JPY. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "GBPCAD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, CAD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, AUD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could narrow. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, CAD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z" } }, "evidence": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.040176+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.363379+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.255628+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.524615+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.", "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "hold_context", "rationale": "The conditional inflation forecast stays within price stability under an unchanged-rate assumption; the bank judges policy appropriate. This supports a research hold baseline, not a promise.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 1, "low": 0, "high": 2, "description": "Price stability: non-negative inflation below 2%", "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/strategy" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.040176+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.363379+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.255628+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.524615+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S" } ], "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.388507+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.526548+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.213825+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.451230+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. Monthly model CPI and quarterly comparison-chart CPI cover different periods.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "AUD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "short": "RBA", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed", "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase", "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.", "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The Board explicitly retains further increases if needed; easing labour conditions remain an offset.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29" }, "framework": { "measure": "Monthly headline CPI", "reference": 2.5, "low": 2, "high": 3, "description": "2–3% inflation target, focused on the midpoint", "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.388507+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.526548+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.213825+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.451230+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S" } ], "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-10-01", "value": 4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.308250+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-10-01", "value": 2.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:42.579713+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:37.842129+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.793777+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-10-01", "periodEnd": "2026-10-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.308250+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-10-01", "periodEnd": "2026-10-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:42.579713+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:37.842129+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.793777+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.042763+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.366150+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.515569+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.758643+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.042763+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.366150+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.515569+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.758643+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.047541+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.364743+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.136722+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.973810+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.047541+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.364743+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.136722+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.973810+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.045287+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.527420+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.749664+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.826579+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.045287+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.527420+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "periodEnd": "2026-07-31", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.749664+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.826579+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3.71494 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 3.07929 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.049698+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.4541 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.32815 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.528173+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.055214+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.211115+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.", "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The published conditional policy projection allows further tightening.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "1–3% medium-term range, focused on 2%", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.049698+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.528173+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.055214+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.211115+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S" } ], "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "USD": { "currency": "USD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline PCE", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.64887 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.45301 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.597447+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.12116 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.04123 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.806243+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "title": "Unemployment Rate", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.356380+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.55049 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.61721 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.425188+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "USD", "bank": "Federal Reserve", "short": "Fed", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path", "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase", "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.", "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "evidence": "Official FOMC statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The decision leaves future adjustments dependent on incoming information.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline PCE", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% longer-run headline PCE objective", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.597447+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.806243+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.356380+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.425188+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S" } ], "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T13:18:08.769Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T13:18:08.769Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } } } } ] }