{ "schemaVersion": 6, "automatedPolicyCoverage": { "assessed": 6, "total": 8, "verifiedDecisions": 3, "unverifiedNewDecisions": 2, "generatedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z" }, "scenarioPolicy": "macro_and_central_bank_policy_evidence_only", "modelVersion": "4.0.0", "workflowVersion": "2.0.0", "experimental": true, "generatedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "inputFingerprint": "8af9156c69b265246e9455cf17d89cf444fa3a807d6458d0009fad92c81d444a", "horizonDays": 90, "banks": { "CHF": { "currency": "CHF", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.99006 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.4512 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.040176+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0.5988 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 0.38377 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.363379+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.03241 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.07263 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.255628+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1.88475 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.63205 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Switzerland", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.524615+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CHF", "bank": "Swiss National Bank", "short": "SNB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-24", "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook", "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target", "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. 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The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "AUD": { "currency": "AUD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Monthly headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.34 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.75229 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "Headline CPI, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.388507+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.58 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.74669 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.526548+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 4.6463 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39241 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.213825+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.4195 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.28623 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.451230+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy is not the RBA trimmed-mean measure. 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The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "EUR": { "currency": "EUR", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline HICP", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-10-01", "value": 4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Headline HICP, ECOICOP version 2, year-on-year percentage change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.308250+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-10-01", "value": 2.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table", "title": "HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:42.579713+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 6.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 6.4 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Unemployment, total labour force, seasonally adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:37.842129+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 0.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.6 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table", "title": "Euro area (21 countries): Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.793777+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "EUR", "bank": "European Central Bank", "short": "ECB", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting", "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path", "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.", "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Meeting-by-meeting decisions do not establish a future hold.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline HICP", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-10-01", "periodEnd": "2026-10-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.308250+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-10-01", "periodEnd": "2026-10-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:42.579713+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:37.842129+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:38.793777+00:00", "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table" } ], "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "CAD": { "currency": "CAD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.09278 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.79805 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.042763+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 1.76877 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.5969 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.366150+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment falling", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 6.4 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 6.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.515569+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.81974 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.08119 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.758643+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Exclusion-based CPI is not the Bank of Canada’s CPI-trim or CPI-median.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "CAD", "bank": "Bank of Canada", "short": "BoC", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside", "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation", "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.", "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "evidence": "Official rate decision press release", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The current hold does not constitute forward hold guidance.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% midpoint of the 1–3% control range", "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.042763+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.366150+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.515569+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.758643+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S" } ], "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "JPY": { "currency": "JPY", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Within the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.6 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 2018)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.047541+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 2.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1.3 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.364743+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.5 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.5 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.136722+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.36046 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.4782 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.973810+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "OECD CPI excluding food and energy differs from Japan’s commonly cited CPI excluding fresh food.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "JPY", "bank": "Bank of Japan", "short": "BoJ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "stance": "Conditional further tightening", "headline": "BoJ September decision retained a conditional tightening path", "guidance": "After its September rate increase, the BoJ said further adjustments would depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions. It described underlying inflation approaching its objective, while retaining uncertainty about timing and pace.", "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "evidence": "Official September monetary policy decision", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The September decision retains conditional further adjustment; timing remains uncertain.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-18", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/target.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.047541+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.364743+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-08-01", "periodEnd": "2026-08-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.136722+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTJPM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.973810+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01JPQ657S" } ], "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "new_decision_requires_verification" }, "score": 1, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "GBP": { "currency": "GBP", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.045287+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; rising", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.1 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.8 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.527420+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-07-31" }, "previous": { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 4.9, "periodEnd": "2026-04-30" }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.749664+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.53261 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.64121 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.826579+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "GBP", "bank": "Bank of England", "short": "BoE", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks", "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike", "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.", "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "Upside inflation risk and a split vote are context, not a promised hike.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-17", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% medium-term objective", "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.045287+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.527420+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-06-01", "periodEnd": "2026-07-31", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.749664+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:39.826579+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S" } ], "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 3, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "NZD": { "currency": "NZD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline CPI", "text": "Above the model reference zone; rising", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 3.71494 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 3.07929 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "National headline CPI, all items, year-on-year percentage change (COICOP 1999)", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.049698+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.4541 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.32815 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL", "title": "CPI excluding food and energy, year-on-year", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.528173+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment rising", "signal": -1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 5.6 }, "previous": { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 5.4 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S", "title": "Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.055214+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "Two quarters above the economy’s prior five-year median", "signal": 1, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.3601 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1.05475 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.211115+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Headline and underlying inflation trends differ; energy, food or other components may matter.", "Rising unemployment offsets inflation pressure and could favour holding.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "NZD", "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand", "short": "RBNZ", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected", "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases", "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.", "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "tightening", "rationale": "The published conditional policy projection allows further tightening.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-02", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline CPI", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "1–3% medium-term range, focused on 2%", "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:36.049698+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-07-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.528173+00:00", "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.055214+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.211115+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S" } ], "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "USD": { "currency": "USD", "state": "uncertain", "label": "Policy direction uncertain", "economicPressure": "Tightening pressure", "drivers": [ { "metric": "Headline PCE", "text": "Above the model reference zone; broadly steady", "signal": 2, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.64887 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.45301 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.597447+00:00" }, { "metric": "Underlying inflation", "text": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change; broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.12116 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 3.04123 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "title": "Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) — year-on-year change", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.806243+00:00" }, { "metric": "Employment", "text": "Unemployment broadly steady", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.2 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.2 }, "frequency": "Monthly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE", "title": "Unemployment Rate", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.356380+00:00" }, { "metric": "Real GDP", "text": "No sustained growth signal relative to recent history", "signal": 0, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 0.55049 }, "previous": { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 0.61721 }, "frequency": "Quarterly", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S", "title": "National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.425188+00:00" } ], "reasons": [ "Official policy guidance is expired, unreviewed or superseded; no directional policy assessment is issued" ], "cautions": [ "Core definitions differ across countries; these are supporting indicators, not separate official targets.", "Economic indicators are source-checked, but the prior central-bank commentary is not treated as current." ], "guidance": { "currency": "USD", "bank": "Federal Reserve", "short": "Fed", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path", "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase", "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.", "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "evidence": "Official FOMC statement", "notMarketPricing": true, "assessment": { "bias": "neutral", "rationale": "The decision leaves future adjustments dependent on incoming information.", "publishedDate": "2026-09-16", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16" }, "latestDecisionDate": "2026-10-28" }, "framework": { "measure": "Headline PCE", "reference": 2, "low": 1.75, "high": 2.25, "description": "2% longer-run headline PCE objective", "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm" }, "coverage": [ { "key": "inflation", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.597447+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI" }, { "key": "core", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:41.806243+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE" }, { "key": "unemployment", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-09-01", "periodEnd": "2026-09-01", "frequency": "Monthly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.356380+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE" }, { "key": "gdp", "usable": true, "latestDate": "2026-04-01", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "frequency": "Quarterly", "retrievedAt": "2026-11-04T13:17:40.425188+00:00", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S" } ], "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "evidenceStatus": { "macro": "validated", "policy": "review_due", "automatedPolicy": "assessed" }, "score": 2, "scoreComponents": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "policyEvidenceReviewed": false, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z", "automatedAssessment": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } } }, "pairs": { "AUDCHF": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 4.6, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "USDCHF": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.875, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "GBPCHF": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 3.75, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, CHF 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "AUDJPY": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 3.35, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "NZDCHF": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.75, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "USDJPY": { "base": "USD", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.625, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "CADCHF": { "base": "CAD", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "CAD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "EURCHF": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CHF", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "EUR", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, CHF 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CHF", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "automatic": { "currency": "CHF", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 0, "decisionDate": "2026-09-24", "decisionSource": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CHF. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "GBPJPY": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "JPY", "signedGap": 2.5, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, JPY 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "AUDCAD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "EURAUD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -2.1, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, AUD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could narrow. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "AUDNZD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and NZD. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "EURUSD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "USDCAD": { "base": "USD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.375, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for USD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CAD and JPY. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for CHF and JPY. 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Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "EURGBP": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "GBP", "signedGap": -1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. 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This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and GBP. 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The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "JPY", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf", "automatic": { "currency": "JPY", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 1.25, "decisionDate": "2026-09-18", "decisionSource": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measures/term_cond/yoryo36.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf", "title": "Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 172KB]" }, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and JPY. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "GBPCAD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 1.25, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, CAD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "NZDUSD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -1.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 0, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "GBPNZD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": 1, "higher": "GBP", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "GBPAUD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "AUD", "signedGap": -0.85, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "narrowing", "label": "Narrowing scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (GBP 3, AUD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could narrow. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and AUD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "narrowing", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards GBP", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "AUDUSD": { "base": "AUD", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": 0.725, "higher": "AUD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "AUD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "automatic": { "currency": "AUD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 4.6, "decisionDate": "2026-09-29", "decisionSource": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for AUD and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": -1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "EURNZD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "NZD", "signedGap": -0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and NZD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "NZDCAD": { "base": "NZD", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0.25, "higher": "NZD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "NZD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": -1, "growth": 1, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version", "automatic": { "currency": "NZD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-02", "decisionSource": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/09/ocr-increased-by-25-basis-points-to-2-75", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "No parseable decision in official feed", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for NZD and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "GBPUSD": { "base": "GBP", "quote": "USD", "signedGap": -0.125, "higher": "USD", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "No sufficiently strong relative policy evidence currently establishes a direction.", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "classificationBasis": "insufficient_macro_policy_evidence", "evidenceTier": "undetermined", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": false, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "unresolved", "reasonCode": "insufficient_directional_evidence", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "GBP", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 1 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "USD", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 2, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 0, "total": 2, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "automatic": { "currency": "GBP", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.75, "decisionDate": "2026-09-17", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 3, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "automatic": { "currency": "USD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "hike_hold", "label": "Automated tightening-pressure scenario", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 3.875, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 2, "inflationPillar": 2 }, "reason": "Source-validated inflation pressure and the total macro score support a conditional tightening-versus-hold research scenario. This is NOT a verified forward-looking central-bank statement or a predicted rate increase." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "matching_policy_bias", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for GBP and USD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "unclear", "scoreDifference": 1, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 0, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Direction not established", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" }, "EURCAD": { "base": "EUR", "quote": "CAD", "signedGap": 0, "higher": "Equal", "horizonDays": 90, "state": "widening", "label": "Widening scenario", "reason": "Relative economic-pressure scores differ by 2 research points (EUR 3, CAD 1). Assuming policy responds to those pressures, the absolute rate gap could widen. Central-bank policy interpretation remains unreviewed or unresolved. This exploratory screen is not a validated 90-day forecast.", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "classificationBasis": "macro_pressure_screen", "evidenceTier": "exploratory_macro", "uncalibratedResearchScenario": true, "backtestedProbability": null, "stages": { "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": { "status": "research_scenario", "reasonCode": "macro_pressure_scenario", "method": "Comparison of current official benchmark gaps and qualitative relative policy evidence" } }, "macro": { "status": "validated", "base": { "currency": "EUR", "pressure": "Tightening pressure", "score": 3, "components": { "inflation": 2, "employment": 0, "growth": 1, "total": 3, "headlineTrend": 1, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "quote": { "currency": "CAD", "pressure": "Balanced or conflicting pressure", "score": 1, "components": { "inflation": 0, "employment": 1, "growth": 0, "total": 1, "headlineTrend": 0, "underlyingTrend": 0 }, "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "reasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "comparison": "Descriptive economic pressure; no predicted policy-rate moves, basis points or probabilities" }, "policy": { "status": "review_due_or_conflicting", "base": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "automatic": { "currency": "EUR", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "new_decision_requires_verification", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-09-10", "decisionSource": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": false, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": { "date": "2026-10-29", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html", "title": "Monetary policy decisions" }, "sourceCheck": "No safely verified new decision" }, "reason": "A newer dated official policy publication was discovered. The older benchmark decision cannot support a current automated policy bias until the new document and effective rate are verified." } }, "quote": { "state": "uncertain", "reviewed": false, "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/", "automatic": { "currency": "CAD", "checkedAt": "2026-11-04T18:03:08.142Z", "assessmentMethod": "deterministic_macro_plus_official_decision_context", "isEditorialReview": false, "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false, "provisional": true, "expectedChangeBp": null, "probability": null, "state": "uncertain", "label": "No supported automated direction", "status": "assessed", "evidence": { "macro": "validated", "benchmarkRate": 2.5, "decisionDate": "2026-10-28", "decisionSource": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/", "verifiedDecisionThisRun": true, "sourceScanCurrent": true, "newerOfficialDecision": null, "sourceCheck": "Decision matches published benchmark", "macroScore": 1, "inflationPillar": 0 }, "reason": "Current economic pressure is insufficient or conflicting. The latest published rate decision alone does not establish a prospective hike, cut or hold." } }, "qualitativeBias": "unclear", "qualitativeReason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "qualitativeReasonCode": "policy_review_due" }, "automaticCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "isVerifiedStatementInterpretation": false }, "qualitativeCandidate": { "state": "unclear", "label": "Uncertain", "reason": "A source-bound policy assessment needs renewed review for EUR and CAD. Current economic data is validated, but its score alone cannot forecast the bank's next move.", "reasonCode": "policy_review_due", "is90DayForecast": false }, "sourceStatus": "macro_evidence_only", "expectedGapBp": null, "expectedAbsoluteGapChangeBp": null, "crossingRisk": null, "macroDirectionalScreen": { "state": "widening", "scoreDifference": 2, "minimumContrast": 2, "forecast": false }, "direction": 1, "tone": "neutral", "signedDirection": "Indicative pressure towards EUR", "unchangedPossible": true, "expiresAt": "2026-11-06T18:03:08.142Z" } } }